Joe Talamo hopes for successful Kentucky Derby trip

Horseracing Betting Lines

04/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jockey Joe Talamo thought he had the horse to beat in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. The young rider had the mount aboard Run for the Roses favorite I Want Revenge.

Trained by Jeff Mullins, I Want Revenge came into the Kentucky Derby off a solid victory in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He was made the 3-1 morning- line favorite for the 135th Run for the Roses.

However, Talamo never got a chance to compete for the roses. I Want Revenge was scratched that Saturday morning with an injury of his left front ankle. The colt has not run since.

Now Talamo has a mount on one of the favorites for this year's Kentucky Derby. The 20-year-old rider is the jockey for Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy.

"To have a horse in the Kentucky Derby, any kind of horse, is a tremendous feat," Talamo said after the win last Saturday. "I feel very honored and blessed just to make it back this year, after what happened last year. We'll see how good he is in the Derby, but the way he handled himself today was unbelievable. He relaxes so well and he does things three-year olds don't do."

Trained by John Sadler, Sidney's Candy will be making his first start on real dirt at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Along with the Santa Anita Derby victory, the colt has wins this year in the San Vicente and San Felipe Stakes.

"I don't think he's going to have a problem," Sadler said. "He's a good horse."

Sadler plans to leave California on Monday, April 12 headed toward Louisville.

Talamo has been the only rider Sidney's Candy has had in his six race career.

"He works the horse, we like him, and he just happened to be in the right place at the right time," Sadler said about the young jockey.

The expected Kentucky Derby favorite is again the Wood Memorial champ. Eskendereya, trained by Todd Pletcher, posted a 9 3/4-length victory last Saturday at Aqueduct. He was returned to Florida before heading to Kentucky.

"We'll just try to keep him happy," said Pletcher. "We'll keep doing what we have been doing."

Lookin At Lucky's troubled trip in the Santa Anita Derby, where he finished third, probably won't be reflected in the Kentucky Derby odds. The 2009 champion two-year-old colt may well be second in the morning-line behind Eskendereya.

"Lookin At Lucky looks fantastic today," said trainer Bob Baffert on Sunday. "He's happy, so that's good. He leaves on the 12th (for Churchill Downs) and yeah, (Garrett) Gomez will ride him back.

"Garrett came by the barn this morning and we talked things over. I didn't like where the horse was the first 100 yards, but I should have told Garrett exactly what to do. I just left it up to him and I messed it up.

"In the Rebel (Stakes on March 13), he was really knocked out after the race. But this is the best the horse has ever come out of a race. He was ice cold and he was bouncing. We learned a lot about the horse that will really help his chances in the Derby. We got beat by a very nice horse, and you can't make any mistakes against a horse like that. We're not the favorite (for the Derby) anymore. We've dropped down a few notches."

Along with Sidney's Candy, another speed horse headed to the Kentucky Derby is Illinois Derby winner American Lion.

"There is only one Derby and we plan on being there," said the colt's trainer Eoin Harty. " I think we needed to get a race over the dirt and fortunately he responded well to it. I have had three Kentucky Derby horses, all Tiznow runners and this is another one that looks to be headed in the right direction."

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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

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Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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